How I look for Altcoin Opportunities 1. Relative Outperformance This is the basis of what I try to find. What is performing the best in the market and what happens when it stops doing so. Especially in broader market dips, projects that buck the trend and continue trending upwards with demand are doing so for a reason (E.g. ZEC). At the same time, underperformance is also something to think about carefully. Even if it’s a project you are very confident in, you need to think about why it’s underperforming and whether your thesis still holds true. 2. V shaped recoveries Another bullish indicator I look for is dips being eaten up aggressively by demand. Would you be more bullish on the coin that is meandering after price falls or the coin that goes straight back as more opportunists enter? Good momentum is one that provides few good opportunities to capitalize on. 3. Clear Utility and Value Accrual As alt dispersion continues, liquidity will shift to projects that actually accrue value towards their tokens and have the means to do so (E.g. Hype, MNT, etc). My personal theory is that altcoins that thrive will lean towards legitimate businesses with product market fit or go full right curve into memecoins. 4. Alpha vs Beta With few exceptions, I prefer trading the market leader over beta plays. Alpha plays attract the most liquidity and lead because people are most confident in it. You do have potentially higher upside with beta plays but more risk and competition as well. 5. Sentiment For some plays, I like to use sentiment to gauge how early I potentially am to a position. If CT isn’t talking about it at all you are early but you also carry the risk of being too early to something that doesn’t see demand. If there is mindshare but opinions are mixed, I make a mental note that there is still opportunity here (E.g. Aster). This is more of art than science. 6. Potential People on CT have this false notion that there needs to be a clear working product with no issues for it to be worth trading. Crypto is inherently speculative. In many cases, people care more about the potential more than the final product. 7. Barrier to Entry The larger the barrier to entry is, the more keen I am on seeing it as a potential opportunity. Always consider the marginal buyer and where you are in the line. If a token has clear demand but is hard to buy or the ecosystem is hard to navigate, I personally see this as potentially bullish especially if there is a catalyst that will make it easier for other people to buy later on. 8. Asymmetry Altcoins are a game of considering what has and what hasn’t been priced in. The issue is many people try to frontrun catalysts without considering if they are putting a fair value to it. A bullish catalyst doesn’t matter if people don’t care about it. Information asymmetry should already be somewhat reflected in price action. It could be an accumulation range that shows signs of breaking out. Maybe you see more volume and price start to trend up. There should be hints that people are noticing this and are buying as a result. 9. Time Sometimes it’s not just about how markets react but also the time it takes to do so. If I see prices falling to a crucial support level with no follow through for days, I will naturally be more bearish because there is a lack of enthusiasm from buyers and vice versa. 10. Forced Selling Last Friday was a good example of this. I knew that many people were going to be forced sellers with the market crash and thought it was a good opportunity to buy into what I was already interested in. Always think about how tokens change hands and who is potentially selling to you.